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Prediction for CME (2022-09-28T05:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-09-28T05:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/21781/-1
CME Note: This CME is seen to the East in SOHO LASCO C2 and C3 imagery. There is a notable eruption signature from the eastern side of AR 13110 (centered near N15E18) starting around 2022-09-28T03:40Z as seen in all SDO/AIA wavelengths. The filament portion is most clearly seen in SDO/AIA 304.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-10-01T15:05Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-10-01T16:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/21788/1
Model Inputs:
2022-09-28T05:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-30.0, Lat.=0.0, Speed=481.0, HalfAngle=14.0, Time21.5=2022-09-28T11:07Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2022-10-01T16:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20220928_110700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 65.07 hour(s)
Difference: -0.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2022-09-28T22:01Z

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